Okay, now these guys are just making me mad! The discussion on NPR (not the hotbed of conservatism) they were discussing how hard it would be for Democrats who have won all these “Republican” seats. Now granted, a few of these folks are going to have to keep their heads down, but lots of these seats were not “Republican” seats, they were “Democratic” seats with Republicans in them or swing seats, which are identified as seats below +5.0 on either side. A third of the new Democrats (28 to date) are from Democratic seats, ten of them came from districts that voted for Clinton. Obviously redistricting played into this as well. Only seven new members are from districts with over +5 Republican performance. Eight of the Republican districts have been trending or have been made to be more Democratic, even during the heyday of the Bush administration.

Let’s go to the numbers:

2000/2004 1992/1996

PVI PVI

AZ-5 Harry Mitchell R+3.7 R+2.8 P/U

AZ-8 Gabby Giffords                          R+1.4     R+1.2                     P/U
CA-11 Jerry McNerney                         R+3        R+2.7                     P/U
CO-7 Ed Perlmutter                             D+2.3     New                       P/U
CT-2 Joe Courtney                               D+7.6     D+7.3                    P/U
CT-5 Chris Murphy                              D+3.7     D+1.7                    P/U
FL-16 Tim Mahoney                            R+2.4     R+3.4                     P/U
FL-22 Ron Klein                                  D+3.6     D+3.0                    P/U
HI-2 Mazie Hirono                              D+9.7     D+8.7

IL-17 Phil Hare D+4.6 D+3.4

IN-2 Joe Donnelly                               R+4.3     R+5.5                     P/U
IN-8 Brad Ellsworth                            R+8.5     R+2.3                     P/U
IN-9 Baron Hill                                    R+7.1     R+3.2                     P/U
IA-1 Bruce Braley                               D+4.8     D+3.7                    P/U
IA-2 Dave Loebsack                            D+6.9     D+5.0                    P/U
KS-2 Nancy Boyda                             R+7.3     R+6.3                     P/U
KY-3 John Yarmuth                            D+2.4     D+3.9                    P/U
LA-2 Runnoff                                      D+27.8   D+23.5

MD-3 Paul Sarbanes D+7.1 D+9.3

MN-1Tim Walz                                    R+0.9     D+1.3                    P/U
MN-5 Keith Ellison                             D+21.5   D+17.6
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter                      R+1        R+1.6                     P/U
NH-2 Paul Hodes                                D+2.7     D+1.0                    P/U
NY-11 Yvette Clark                            D+39.9   D+38.3
NY-19 John Hall                                  R+1.5     D+2.0                    P/U
NY-20 Kirsten Gillibrand                    R+2.5     R+4.0                     P/U
NY-24 Mike Arcuri                             R+0.6     R+2.5                     P/U
NC-11 Heath Shuler                            R+7.1     R+4.6                     P/U
OH-6 Charlie Wilson                           D+0.4     R+2.9
OH-18 Zack Space                              R+6.1     D+2.7                    P/U
PA-7 Joe Sestak                                   D+3.6     R+4.4                     P/U
PA-10 Chris Carney                             R+8.0     R+4.0                     P/U
PA-4 Jason Altmire                              R+2.6     D+3.2                    P/U
PA-8 Patrick Murphy                           D+3.4     R+2.2                     P/U

TN-9 Steve Cohen D+15.7 D+17.6

TX-22 Nick Lampson                          R+14.5   R+14.1                   P/U
VT-AL Peter Welch                             D+9.1     D+8.2
WI-8 Steve Kagen                               R +3.7    R+3.8                     P/U
The Washington Post specifically called out Nancy Boyda as an endangered new member, having beaten Jim Ryun somewhat out of the blue, but that was only probably a shock for people who aren’t from Kansas.  The people who live in Kansas realize the Republican party in Kansas has imploded and two state level candidates won their elections who defected from the Republican party this year to run as Democrats.
Argh, now they are arguing that Pelosi cleaned out the primaries and recruited conservatives where they needed them.  Now I agree that happened, but I am also pretty dubious about the outcome.  As a matter of fact, some of their most glorious recruits are now on the list of undecided races and in races where the grassroots candidate managed to overcome to party selected candidate, the grassroots candidate won, i.e. McNerney, Hall, Shea-Porter.  Once all the races are decided, I will write more on that.  Thanks for listening to all this ranting!
Darcy
P/U = Pick Up
The PVI compares the averaged party vote to the nation in each presidential election in each district.